Archive for the Draft Category

So What Does the Davidson Addition Actually Mean?

By on October 29, 2012

A lot of people have written a lot of things so far on the Blue Jackets’ hiring of John Davidson to be President of Hockey Operations. I’ll leave it to others to discuss how this impacts the fans, what is means to the city, etc. What I can talk about regarding this hire, is how it will impact the team directly.

The first place where Davidson will have a major impact is the culture of the organization. This is something that has been in flux for a while now, and with Rick Nash gone, Davidson can step into the void. He is a proven winner, a respected voice, and has a cult of personality that can dominate the spotlight without making it look like he is trying to dominate the spotlight. This allows the players to play, Howson to manage,  and Richards to coach, without having to be in the public eye as much. When it comes to culture, Davidson’s Blues teams have always been workmanlike teams with a strong veteran presence. That should carry over to Columbus. He will not allow the ‘country club’ culture that has been persistent in the Jackets history to continue.

Davidson will also help greatly with the perception of Columbus around the league. Look at Sergei Kostitsyn’s comments the other day, Marc Crawford’s comments a few months ago, among many other quotes from people in the game of hockey regarding Columbus.  It is incredibly tough to break out of that perception. But it can be done. No one in their right mind would argue that Columbus is a “gloomier” city to live in than Detroit. But Detroit has a reputation around the league as a first class organization and a winner, which trumps the depression that is actually living in Detroit. This is in spite of the fact that Detroit had a fifteen year stretch as the laughingstock of the league, picking up almost as many insulting nicknames (“Dead Wings”) as playoff appearances (two). They brought in respected veteran front office guy Jimmy Devellano from the New York Islanders dynasty, drafted Steve Yzerman (amongst others), and the rest is history. The hire of John Davidson is on par with the Wings hire of Devellano, and with some luck, Ryan Murray could be our Steve Yzerman (not in play, but in personality and impact to the organization). In any case, John Davidson is the first step towards changing the perception of Columbus as the “Island of Misfit Toys”.

In a more direct way, the Blue Jackets will benefit from the additional veteran voice in the decision making process. Columbus has long had one of the smaller front offices in the NHL, and one of the greenest. I have long liked their approach, but more experienced voices have been needed since Don Boyd and Bob Strum were let go last offseason. A veteran like Davidson has seen the ups and downs of many players over the course of his career, and that benefit of that experience is damn near incalculable when trying to properly assess player value. Along with Craig Patrick, Davidson provides the Blue Jackets front office with as much, or more, of this experience than most other franchises currently possess.

Continue reading So What Does the Davidson Addition Actually Mean?

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CBJ at the 2012 NHL Draft

By on June 26, 2012

Well the next to last weekend in June has come and gone, meaning the NHL draft is over. The Blue Jackets went to the Steel City with eight picks, using only six due to the Bobrovsky trade (a deal I don’t really have a problem with). I was lucky enough to go to the draft – I say lucky because getting tickets was a pain in the butt and a half, (we had to resort to eBay and a friend of one of my dad’s coworkers to go both days).

As for the draft, as I said before, the Blue Jackets added six players with it being an even split on multiple levels. Of the six the team selected there were two of each position (forward/ defenseman/ goalie) and three each coming from North America and Europe. So, without further ado, lets meet the newest Jackets.

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Why Scott Howson Made the Right Decision

By on June 25, 2012

Today Aaron Portzline reported the New York Islanders offered their entire draft for the number 2 selection. Twitter went crazy at how terrible Columbus GM Scott Howson is for turning down that offer. I’ve recently done a lot of research regarding the draft and the value of draft picks. Per that research, here are the corresponding draft pick values for that trade: Pick #2 is equal to 185 points of value; pick #4=140, pick #34=25, pick #65=14, pick #103=8, pick #125=7, pick #155=6, and pick #185=5. That is a total of 207 points of expected value. However, those later picks don’t actually hold value, they only hold value if an NHL player is found, which is about 10% of the time for rounds 3-7. The 34th pick gets you an NHL player around a quarter of the time. So essentially, this trade would be a move down for a worse player with a lower chance of being a major contributor, for a couple of low chances at an NHL player. But don’t take my word for it, below I went through every draft from 2000-2009 and looked at the players selected with the picks in the rumored Isles deal. Read through these picks and try to tell me Scott Howson made the wrong decision.

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Draft Expectations Part Two: Theory into Practice

By on June 25, 2012

Before the draft I posted a piece detailing research I had done into the expected value of draft picks. One of the conclusions I came to was “it would be smart for a team to draft forwards in rounds one and two, then take defensemen in the middle rounds, then pick up a goaltender or two in the later rounds every year.” With this thought in mind, I went back through the Blue Jackets draft picks from 2000-2009 to see how they would have fared had they followed that advice. This was a simple exercise. I changed the Blue Jackets draft picks in rounds 1-3 into forwards, rounds 4-6 into defensemen, and round(s) 7 (and 8-9 pre-2005) into goaltenders. If the Blue Jackets selected the proper position, that picked stayed. If they didn’t, then the next player picked at the proper position was subbed in. Most of this research was done Friday night and Saturday morning. In other words, as the draft was occurring. By picking Ryan Murray (D), Oscar Dansk (G) and Joonas Korpisalo (G) in rounds 1-3, Josh Anderson (F) and Daniel Zaar (F) in rounds 4-6, and Gianluca Curcuruto in round 7, they did not even come close to following my recommendation. So let’s take a look back on how the Jackets would have fared, as well as try to figure out why forwards are better early and defensemen/goalies are better late.

Continue reading Draft Expectations Part Two: Theory into Practice

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2012 Draft: Day Two

By on June 23, 2012

After the exciting finish to round one yesterday, I was expecting a real bang to start the morning session.  There were at least two offers on the table for Columbus’ 31st pick last night, and a number of players who had slid from many analysts top 30 chart.  With Howson noting their last minute decision to not take the Kings 1st round pick this year, I was under the assumption that Columbus had at least one player, if not a couple of players circled.  The Jackets also had five additional picks after the Ryan Murray pick of Friday, and my full attention.

My original hopes included Martin Frk, a Canadian junior prospect with an excellent shot and solid size.  Instead, the Blue Jackets opted to resolve a major hole in their prospect pool by drafting the 2nd rated European goalie, Oscar Dansk.  Dansk put up strong numbers with Sweden internationally, and will likely enter the Canadian Hockey League this coming season.  Dansk profile at Elite Prospects

If people were still concerned with the depth of Columbus’ goalie prospects, they certainly wouldn’t be after the 62nd pick, in which the Blue Jackets called Joonas Korpisalo.  He was the third ranked European goalie behind only Dansk and Vasilevski.  Not unlike Dansk, he could very well find himself entering the Canadian Junior system for the upcoming season, and to my understanding, both drafted goalies will join the team for the development camp held in early July. Korpisalo profile at Elite Prospects

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2012 Draft: Day One

By on June 23, 2012

Hours ago, with the fate of Columbus’ selection resting solely in the undeserving hands of the Edmonton Oilers, I sat wavering on who I wanted the Jackets to select in the second position.  Originally I was committed on the Oilers finally addressing their defensive issues, leaving Yakupov and Galchenyuk on the board while taking either Murray or Reinhart.  Shockingly, or I suppose completely not shocking at all, Edmonton opted to take the best player available in Yakupov.

A day ago, I would have been openly frustrated at the idea of Columbus taking a defenseman with the second overall pick.  I was committed to Galchenyuk or a trade to a team in the 3-6 pick range.  It took only a handful of tweets, blog posts, and analyst commentary about Ryan Murray’s stability and leadership as a player to realize just how special he can be for this team.

Realistically, I would have accepted a trade, but as soon as Howson said his name I was satisfied, and I believe based on the reaction I read throughout the tweets, on the Union Blue forums, and in texts that Columbus found a real gem.  It also shows the confidence that Howson has in his group of scouts, and in Ryan Murray.  He was noted saying that Murray still being on the board closed the door to a potential trade of the number two pick, and I support that kind of confidence.

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Draft Position Expectations

By on June 21, 2012

Heading into tomorrow’s NHL Entry Draft, the Columbus Blue Jackets have the opportunity to do something they have only done once before: draft a player with a top two pick. The first time they got long-time franchise player Rick Nash. With Nash on his way out, who Columbus should take has been debated ad nauseum. There are many schools of thought when it comes to the draft, with the consensus being to take the best player available. If there is n0 clear favorite, then draft for need. Unfortunately, the Blue Jackets biggest need is a goaltender. With no clear pick for the Blue Jackets (unless Nail Yakupov falls to them), I thought I would head to the history books to try and analyze what players should be picked where. I went back through the Entry Draft’s from 2000-2009, applied a formula to every player’s statistics to assign a value to every player, then analyzed the resulting data. What I found is very interesting. It suggests the Blue Jackets should NOT draft Ryan Murray with the number two pick, nor should they consider drafting Malcom Subban or Andrei Vasilevski with a first round pick. Check out the rest for more analysis and further information on the methodology.

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Mock Draft v3.0

By on June 19, 2012

After CBJProspects posted his Mock Draft the other day, I figured I should get around to posting the final version of mine. Inspired by his full draft, I picked two full rounds, followed by the remainder of the Blue Jackets picks, and ten bonus players I wouldn’t mind seeing picked by the Jackets. Still no shake-up at the top for me, as I have been pretty set on how I view the top few players for some time now. For comparison, you can check out v1.0 and v2.0. Enjoy!

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My CBJ Mock Draft

By on June 14, 2012

With the draft quickly approaching, and the internet being full of mock drafts, I’m offering my take. Be it just a first round to those few crazy sites that do full draft mock ups, me, I’m taking the easy way out – I’m just doing one team. That one team is of course the Columbus Blue Jackets(duh prospect boy).

As of this writing the Blue Jackets own eight picks, possibly nine. And, important to note, in my proposed draft, I can only pick from who has been ranked by the scouting services since I can’t find a list of unsigned prospects that reentered the draft or players that were passed over in previous drafts (quick note last three drafts we’ve selected a player that’s been passed over). So here we go.

The CBJ’s Picks (round-pick)
1-2
2-31,45(OTT via PHX)
3-62
4-95(NYI via VAN), 117(via VAN)
6-152
7-182

ROUND 1 PICK 2
Nail Yakupov(CSS Rank NA 1)
Ok, I’m not saying how, but somehow, someway, the Jackets will flip picks with Edmonton and take Nail Yakupov. Yakupov will give us a skilled, but undersized, goal scorer to hopefully help fill the void left by the Rick Nash trade. Plus, we can only hope for post game interviews like this. Of note, after breaking Steven Stamkos’ rookie scoring records, Yakupov had a rough season due to injuries also having to sit a few games after skipping the Top Prospect game(how dare he rehab an injury- he’s a monster).

ROUND 2 PICK 31
Malcolm Subban(CSS Rank NA G 1)
This pick is totally to help fill the massive crater that is the CBJ’s goalie depth. Now don’t read that as I think Subban will be in Columbus next year, I’m more than ready for him to take a few seasons to develop. Subban’s only been playing goal since he was 12, but he is very athletic and has quick reflexes. Only problem is his rebound control. Malcolm is compared to Montreal’s Carey Price. Subban was among the OHL’s top goalies including being 4th in GAA with a 2.50 with three shutouts. Subban has a slight connection with the Jackets as Columbus prospect Dalton Smith demolished Subban earning him a 10 game suspension.

ROUND 2 PICK 45
Tim Bozon(CSS Rank NA 42)
I’ve liked Tim Bozon since reading about him in The Hockey News Draft Guide when it commented on not only his skill but also his toughness. Now at 6’1, 180some lbs, Bozon is no bruiser, but he’s a speedy scorer and, at least in juniors (Swiss and WHL) a point per game player. The mention of his toughness is when he took a monster hit but Bozon waved the trainer off, another example of this led to a great quote from a scout is when he got into a fight(<-I think this was it) in the playoffs noting Bozon got the tar beaten out of him ”I didn’t get to see his skill set” also adding “but I did leave there thinking he was either stupid or he had a lot of balls”. Bozon’s best attribute is his skating and speed leading to 36 goals which was second on the Blazers. Tim’s father Philippe was the first French trained player to play in the NHL suiting up for 144 games with St Louis in the early 90s.

ROUND 3 PICK 62
Anthony Stolarz(CSS Rank NA G 4)
You’re probably going to call me crazy for taking a goalie in back to back rounds, but Stolarz has been climbing teams’ lists. Stolarz is a monster(pauses and thinks of Wesslau and Gustavsson nevermind) at 6’5 200 lbs having the biggest wingspan at the recent NHL combine with a wingspan of 81″(his wingspan is wider than he is tall). Now Stolarz would be a project as he’s committed to Nebraska-Omaha, but Omaha returns two Sophomores who won nine of the team’s 14 games last season. Stolarz ended up in the lower NAHL after being cut from two EJHL team’s camps and, with some help from his coaches, where once he was expected to be a backup he ended up playing 50 games for the IceRays.

ROUND 4 PICK 95
Esa Lindell(CSS Rank Euro 12)
Not gonna lie this is totally a stat based one. The 6’3″ Fin scored 21 goals(#18 in the video)for the Jokerit Jr team and according to one draft guide it’s because of “a high scoring environment and big ice time”. Lindell is a smart player when making plays and patient with the puck but he’s only average with it but still coordinated enough to make plays. Conflicting scouting reports exist about his physical play, but most sites reports list him as 6’2-6’3 and in the 190 some pound range. Lindell sounds like he’d be a bit of a project pick.

ROUND 4 PICK 117
Brendan Leipsic(CSS Rank 114)
Leipsic sounds a little like Derek Dorsett mixed with Cam Atkinson and possibly a little TJ Tynan, one guide I have called him a energizer bunny. Leipsic despite being listed at 5’9 165 loves to finish checks and has no problem going to the dirty areas. Now he lacks an extra gear but makes up for it by being “sneaky fast”, but he’s hard to control around the boards and when driving to the net. Leipsic has great hands, an accurate shot and is very creative offensively. The only problem with him seems to be he’s 5’9 and his style of play could lead to injuries.

ROUND 6 PICK 152
Justin Hache(CSS Rank 152)
Now picking him at the number he’s ranked is just coincidence. Where Lindell was offensive, Hache has 33 career points in 97 games. Hache was seeing important minutes with the Cataractes until the team loaded up for the Memorial Cup acquiring three of the QMJHL’s top defensemen. Hache is a steady reliable defenseman, but not a great skater, and, someone who likes to be physical along the boards. As with most prospects, he will need to get stronger. Next year, Justin will be playing on a new team as he was traded to Cape Breton to complete one of the trades earlier in the season to acquire one of the top defenseman.

ROUND 7 PICK 182
Ludvig Nilsson(CSS Rank Euro 57)
Nilsson is a 6’1 center/left wing that played for Timra’s junior team scoring 32 points in 47 games. Nilsson has a shoot first mentality that shows he wants to be a difference maker. While he doesn’t punish you with his size, he uses it in his goal scoring. Nilsson is a net presence on the power play where he earns most of his points.

There you have it folks, my picks on who the CBJ should draft. If I get any of these right, I may retire from blogging(stop cheering!)! I’ll be at the draft for both days with a little help from ebay and a friend of my dad’s so ill be live tweeting and commenting all the way. Be sure to follow me here at the Union Blue and via Twitter at @cbjprospects.

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Blue Jackets Off-Season Game Plan

By on June 3, 2012

Rick Nash. The second overall pick. Goaltending. Defensive defenseman. Top six forwards. What do all of these have in common? I have talked about them ad nauseam over the last couple months. They all represent something that will change from the current incarnation of the Blue Jackets, to the team who takes the ice opening night. I’ve probably discussed hundreds of versions of the Nash trade; I’ve written two mock drafts; talked endlessly about Nail Yakupov, Alex Galchenyuk, Ryan Murray, Mikhail Grigorenko, et al; I’ve reviewed every UFA goaltenders statistics dozens of times; and spent far too many hours playing with the CapGeek.com Cap Calculator. So I thought I would take all that time and make it useful. I put together the moves I would make if I was running the Blue Jackets, including the Nash trade, who I would take in the draft, what free agents I would sign, and one more surprise trade that I like and I imagine every other Jackets fan will hate.

Continue reading Blue Jackets Off-Season Game Plan

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