So it looks like Cam Atkinson will be back in the lineup tonight against the San Jose Sharks. After three healthy scratches in the last four games (and the lone game played being the Chicago shellacking), we finally get to see him again. Cam Atkinson looks to be the victim of one of my favorite sports theories, Bill Simmons’ Ten Percent Theory. While originally applied to Russell Westbrook of the NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder, I think it applies pretty well in this situation regarding Cam. As the theory goes, no player is perfect. Every player is missing at least 10 percent of the ideal basketball player (or hockey player in this case). For Russell Westbrook, his ten percent is the recklessness he plays with. This can rear its head at inopportune moments, and distracts people from the 90% of his game that is fantastic. He compares this to Kevin Durant, whose missing ten percent is his lack of strength and defense, two things that are not as obvious to most viewers.
So the trade deadline has come and gone. We’ve got three-ish familiar faces out the door, with four fresh faces headed to CBJ-land. In all, I think the Jackets fared well. While I may not have gone in any of these directions, I understand each deal and think each one represents good value.
The Olympic break is just that. A nice little break to take stock of the season so far. Looking back so far over the season, there are really two Blue Jackets squads. There is the injury riddled, under-performing bunch from the start of the year. Then there is the top ten team from the last couple months. Is any of this really that surprising though? We knew Nathan Horton would be out to start the year. We knew Sergei Bobrovsky would regress. We knew this was one of the youngest rosters in the league, one that had barely played together over the last couple of years. That has all the makings of a slow start.
However, the first few months of the year probably went worse than would be expected. Just check out the Jackets’ goal differential from the first few months (where they played like a borderline playoff team, with only a -2 goal differential through December 22nd), to now, where they have played like a legit playoff team (currently +9, good for 10th in the NHL). So injuries plus weak goaltending provides results worse than should be expected. That’s all the makings for a turnaround. Aka the last two months are not a fluke.
So where do we go from here? I’ve got two views of it. The first, to follow in this post, is the small picture. It’s the trade deadline and this current offseason. You can’t fully discuss one without talking about the other. Player re-signings, rentals, prospects, draft picks; they are all just so intertwined, it makes sense to discuss both. The other view is the big picture, coming later this week. It’s based around a not-so-simple question: who do the Blue Jackets want to be?
With that being said, let’s look back to the current roster. Per CapGeek , the Jackets are currently sitting on around $2.5m in cap space, although they will have about $4m by the deadline. That means they can add up to that much in salary without sending any out. Basically, unless the Jackets are targeting one of a handful of premium rentals, they don’t need to move out anyone of significance. This picture gets even rosier this offseason. The team will have about $22m in cap space for next year, with ten forwards, four defensemen, one goalie signed. That is a lot of room to work with, and considering the young age of the roster, GM Jarmo Kekelainen and President John Davidson can take this team in just about any direction they want. I’m not Jarmo or JD, but here is the direction I would like to see them take, broken down by player status.
Seriously folks. I know I seem to come across like the biggest Dalton Prout hater that ever lived, but I swear this has nothing to do with anything I’ve previously said on the man (or kid). I’ve usually had good things to say about Tim Erixon and Ryan Murray (and think Murray is legit), but those three guys have a much bigger hill to climb than you probably expect. Continue reading…
Last year I put together a series of posts centered around my expectations for the various Blue Jackets players goal totals, with one running before the season, one at midseason reviewing how I did and predicting the remainder of the season, and one after the year was over looking back at the first two pieces. I was pretty happy with how my method worked out, so I figured I’d do this for the entire league. You can find my preliminary post on it here, along with an update after the Capitals signed Grabovski. Here at the Union Blue, you’re going to get everything I’ve put together regarding the Jackets.
Unfortunately, I don’t think most of you will be happy with me. I have the Jackets finishing 15th in the NHL in goal differential. However, I also have the Metropolitan division as the league’s most difficult. If the season proceeds this way, the Jackets will finish 6th in the Metro, behind the Rangers, Devils, Penguins, Islanders, and Capitals. The Grabovski signing actually pushed the Caps above the Jackets for the final playoff spot in the East. Consolation prize: I also have the Red Wings missing the playoffs. So there’s that.
In just an hour or so, the Free Agent Frenzy begins in the NHL, perhaps made a bit more rational this year by allowing teams and players to chat for a few days before actual signings can occur. Indeed, some teams apparently took liberties with the whole concept of “discussions”, prompting the NHL to issue a memo directing that all “offers” made before noon EDT today had to be withdrawn. Such is modern life — stretch the rule to the limit…then one more step.
The Coach has already presented his wish list of players, so I’m going to take a bit narrower approach here, focusing on the few players I think are realistic targets in free agency, and how that translates into reality under the salary cap. Let’s dig in.
The Budget & the Needs
Relying on our good friends at www.capgeek.com, we know that the Blue Jackets have 21 of 23 available roster slots filled, with $7,991,191 available under the cap for the outstanding two slots. Those 21 signed players include 12 forwards, 7 defensemen and two net-minders. That also includes Ryan Murray on the NHL roster, with a cap hit of $3.494 million, but does not include a roster spot for Boone Jenner, with his far more modest cap hit of $895K. So, if Murray does not make the big club, the cap space would be just under $11.5 million, but there would then be three slots to fill.
Much of the twitter banter last night surrounding the Blue Jackets roster included the excitement of a Horton visit, and the question mark surrounding a Prospal extension. It was enough to get me into a couple of late night heated debates about the value of an aging Prospal not only to the team, but to the fan base. It caused me to pose a question to my fellow twitter’ers that served some intriguing results.
The question I asked (for a reason), was who the original culture change with Columbus began, whether it was Prospal or Davidson. The results were nearly unanimous, with Vinny getting somewhere in the realm of 15-20 responses, with honourable mentions to JJ, Nash’s departure, and Howson’s removal.
Contracts, Roster Review, Roster Talk, Team Discussion / 6 Comments
This free agency preview is going to be a little different than I had planned on. I started out with the intention of putting together a lineup of the currently signed Blue Jackets players, where they fit in the lineup, and where holes still remained. The problem is that the Blue Jackets have such a versatile lineup, and enough prospects on the cusp of the NHL, that you can very easily put together a very solid looking lineup without adding a single player via UFA or trade. For example:
Nick Foligno – Artem Anisimov – Marian Gaborik
RJ Umberger – Ryan Johansen – Brandon Dubinsky
Matt Calvert – Boone Jenner – Cam Atkinson
Blake Comeau – Mark Letestu – Jared Boll
Fedor Tyutin – Jack Johnson
Ryan Murray – James Wisniewski
Tim Erixon – Dalton Prout
Sergei Bobrovsky – Curtis McElhinney
Not too shabby, eh? I think that is roster that has the potential to compete for a playoff spot in the newly designed Eastern Conference Division D (really hoping they come up with a better name than that). But that lineup does a few things I don’t think JD and Jarmo really want to do. It puts Murray and Jenner right into the NHL, something JD has only done once in St. Louis (David Perron). Usually he signs depth veterans, uses the youngsters as call-ups and makes them force their way onto the team (then flips the vets for picks later). It also has a number of players playing at a spot in their lineup that is probably above their heads. Continue reading…
Draft, General Manager, Prospects, Roster Talk, Team Discussion, Trade News / 4 Comments
Hello CBJ fans! CBJProspects and myself will taking some time during the draft today to post our thoughts on all the picks, trades, rumors, and general happenings of today’s NHL draft. The Jackets are currently sitting on three first round picks, a wealth of cap space, and are now shopping the rights to Sergei Bobrovsky. With all that in play, Columbus looks to be one of the more exciting teams to watch on this fine Sunday. I encourage everyone to follow along and leave your opinions and/or questions in the comments. Check out all our thoughts after the jump, starting around 2:30 (unless something crazy happens before then). Continue reading…
When Sergei Bobrovsky began to show flashes of league leading greatness this past season it was both a blessing and a curse for the Blue Jackets front office. Last off season, Scott Howson traded for one guaranteed year of Bobrovsky in net. The theory was it was a chance to see if Bob could earn his keep as a starting goalie and provide a solution to the CBJ netminding woes. Boy did he. Bob ended the regular season with the second highest save percentage for all goalies (second only to Anderson) and fifth in GAA. He earned every bit of the Vezina trophy. The award recognition was a welcome celebration for both the goaltender and our club, but it also turned the tables squarely in the favor of Bob when it came to contract negotiations. That one year gamble has turned into a looming large payday for Bob. Continue reading…