Ryan Johansen

Everyone is Wrong and I Hate Everything

Posted by The Coach on September 18, 2014
Columbus Blue Jackets / 1 Comment

So I’ve been on vacation the last little while. During a few minutes of downtime the other day, I took some time to catch up on the ongoing Ryan Johansen saga. I posted some of my thoughts on Twitter the other day, but this whole thing is just too complicated and nuanced to really do justice in 140 characters (or even several continued 140 character segments). So here are my full thoughts on this ridiculousness: Everyone is wrong. And most of the thoughts, comments, and what not from those involved in this saga (and even those not) make me hate everything. Continue reading…

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Some More Thoughts on Nick Foligno

Posted by The Coach on July 31, 2014
Columbus Blue Jackets, Contracts, Stats / No Comments

In yesterday’s Salary Project post, I took a look at Nick Foligno (as well as Scott Hartnell and Ryan Johansen). In it, I advocated for letting Nick Foligno walk after this season. That isn’t sitting particularly well with me right now. See, I love Nick Foligno. He’s probably number three on my list of favorite Jackets players (behind Brandon Dubinsky and Ryan Murray). He seems like a great guy, he works hard, he does a lot of little things pretty well. So looking at comparable players around the league in terms of his age and offensive production, and seeing what the market was for those players was a little disappointing. I wasn’t expecting anyone outstanding to show up, but wasn’t expecting the kinds of guys still sitting as unrestricted free agents either. Continue reading…

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The Salary Project Part 2: Foligno, Hartnell & Johansen

Posted by The Coach on July 30, 2014
Columbus Blue Jackets / 3 Comments

Welcome to the Salary Project Part 2. If you missed Part 1, you can find it here. The Salary Project is a look at the entire CBJ roster, using an arbitration-style analysis to figure out who their closest comparable players are around the league, how much those players make, and how much to expect on a player’s next contract and/or if they are providing good value on their current contract. This is done through using filters on the entire NHL. We are looking at forwards again this week, so we eliminate all defensemen, all players more than two years apart in age, then break down goals, assists, and special teams time on ice by a percentage filter. Generally, it’s players within 15% of the goals and assists, and 25% of time on ice stats, however there are occasionally exceptions,which are noted, and only when there are not enough players in the standard filter to get a good idea of value. Part 1 covered Cam Atkinson, Matt Calvert, and Brandon Dubinsky. Up today are Nick Foligno, Scott Hartnell, and Ryan Johansen. Let’s get to it.

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The Salary Project: Introduction, Atkinson, Calvert & Dubinsky

Posted by The Coach on July 24, 2014
Columbus Blue Jackets, Contracts, Stats / 2 Comments

Ahhhhh the doldrums of the offseason. With one major exception, everything in CBJ-Land is settled for the coming year. Even considering Ryan Johansen‘s lack of a contract, we still have a very good idea of what the Blue Jackets roster will look like for the coming year. The exact lines and defense pairings are still up in the air, but we can deal with that closer to when we actually get to see them. Right now there is one thing (almost) going on in the NHL: arbitration hearings. I say almost, as hearings basically NEVER happen anymore, with all the scheduled hearings getting canceled so far after the players and teams have come to agreements. However, I know a thing or two about arbitration in the NHL, having penned this article at the Score, this MUCH longer in-depth paper, as well as first hand experience working on NHL arbitration cases. I figured I’d take the arbitration approach to the current Blue Jackets roster. By looking at what players around the league would be comparable to the current CBJ roster based on their current seasons, we can see if their salaries (and by salaries I mean cap hits) are commensurate with what they contributed last season.

So how did I do this? Well I used a 15% filter (with exceptions noted) for goals and assists, a 25% filter for time on ice, a plus/minus two years in age filter, and of course a positional filter (although all forwards are lumped together). Those sets were used for every player, with a 25% filter for special teams play for players that warranted it. This was done over the last two seasons to find a group of five to ten players who best matched the CBJ player in question. Players on entry-level deals weren’t considered, as their contracts are not merit based (at least not NHL merit). I then looked over the resulting list and figured out where the CBJ player fit. That gives us a nice little range for what each player should be paid based on their market value (from last season), how they compare to players of similar ilk, and what kind of contract to expect for each player moving forward. For today’s post I’ll be taking a look at Cam Atkinson, Matt Calvert, and Brandon Dubinsky. Why didn’t I start with Ryan Johansen? Well the outrage from some mainstream media folks over the Dubinsky project is what initially led me to this idea, I wanted to do them by lines (more or less), and I can only do so much in one post (these are VERY research intensive). Don’t worry, Johansen will be in part two. Without further ado, let’s get into it.

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The Coach’s Offseason Thoughts (So Far)

Posted by The Coach on June 30, 2014
Columbus Blue Jackets, Roster Talk / 1 Comment

I had the majority of a post put together for an offseason game plan post featuring all the moves I wanted to see the Jackets make. I’d figured out reasonable cap hits for the guys I wanted to be signed, figured out a nice trade or two that made sense, and wrote a nice long paragraph about how no one in their right mind would deal anything of value for RJ Umberger. Then it all got blown to hell. It came out that Jason Spezza had Columbus on his no trade list (I had him as a trade target), Nikita Nikitin was dealt to the Oilers, and Umberger was somehow traded for Scott Hartnell. In my opinion, those moves took care of a lot of what the Jackets needed to do this offseason. So instead of a post detailing everything I wanted to see, I figured I’d hit everything that has happened so far, and what I want to see happen the rest of the offseason. Continue reading…

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A Look at the 2013-14 CBJ WOWY Numbers

Posted by The Coach on June 17, 2014
Stats / 2 Comments

WOWY. Also known as With Or Without You. It’s not just a U2 love song, in fact it’s a pretty useful tool for looking at how players perform with certain teammates, what players are driving their lines, which ones are dragging their lines down, and which combinations seem to work at bringing the best out of each other. The basic data came from Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com, and boy do they have a lot of data. Within those pages you can find WOWY details for pretty much every player over the last few seasons, combined seasons, when the score is close, and much more. For this post, I used 5v5 data from the 2013-14 season only (to keep the sample size as large as possible). So I took all that information, and made a nice big fancy chart. It shows the Corsi percentage that each player is better (or worse) with each player. So the corresponding space in the chart of Johansen With (along the top of the chart) and Foligno (on the left side of the chart) shows the difference between Ryan Johansen‘s Corsi For % with Nick Foligno, and Johansen’s Corsi For % away from Foligno. Got it? Good. Let’s take a look at the chart, then go over a few things that need to be considered. After that is the good stuff: the players who come out best (and worst) in this analysis, the best combinations of players, and various ideal/terrible/etc. lineups.

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The Second Annual tUB Awards: The Hart Memorial Trophy

Posted by Staff on June 12, 2014
tUB Awards / No Comments

Well here we are. The 2014 Stanley Cup is going to be awarded pretty darn soon – a former Jacket (or 2..or 3..or 4) will be raising it. Free agency talk is starting to buzz. Things are happening. But more important than all of that is the conclusion of The Union Blue Awards for 2014. We wrap everything up with the most important trophy of all, The Hart Memorial Trophy. It is given out to the player judged most valuable to his team. Last year’s winner was a clear cut decision for Sergei Bobrovsky, but with more and more success built on more and more guys stepping up – we have a wealth of votes to dole out. With that being said, the winner of the 2014 tUB Hart Memorial Trophy is….

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The Second Annual tUB Awards: Frank J. Selke Trophy

Posted by Staff on June 07, 2014
tUB Awards / No Comments

The Selke goes out to the top defensive forward in the NHL. Usually this also carries with it the burden of being somewhat of an offensive player as well. Last year’s winner was Brandon Dubinsky with others up and down the line up receiving votes. Can 17 repeat? Read on to see who this year’s Union Blue Selke winner is…

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2014 tUB Awards: Ted Lindsay Award

Posted by Staff on May 29, 2014
tUB Awards / 2 Comments

The Lindsay is given out by the NHLPA, and awarded to the most outstanding player as decided by the players. Since we couldn’t do the whole player votes part (what sets it apart from the Hart) we went in a slightly different direction. The tUB Lindsay is going out to the BEST player, irregardless of value to the team. So with that said, the winner of the Lindsay is…

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The Second Annual tUB Awards: The Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy

Posted by Staff on May 20, 2014
Columbus Blue Jackets, tUB Awards / No Comments

Unlike last year, we had a consensus winner for the Masterton this time around. A reminder (as this one may be a bit more obscure), the Masterton goes out to the player who best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship, and dedication to hockey. Last year the award was taken home by Vinny Prospal, so we’ll obviously have a new player take home this hardware. The champion is something of a no brainer, but the tUB team was all over the map in the second and third place votes. Continue on to find out the winner…. Continue reading…

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